BloggerCorps

Hello, this is my first post. I wonder if any of you are from or have an interest in Nepal? A close friend has been living there for some months and called me yesterday evening with some interesting news. There is armed strike being conducted by the Maoist rebels who have been fighting the monarchy and various coalition governments in Kathmandu since 1995. In February, the monarchy dissolved parliament and abrogated to itself emergency powers, ostensibly to deal directly with the growing insurgency but probably to forestall legislative action by the opposition to curtail most of its powers. My friend does not know if Washington pre-approved this move (much as it pre-approved Alberto Fujimori's self-coup in Peru in 1992 also designed to defeat a Maoist rebellion that was threatening to seize power nationwide), but if Washington thought it would strengthen the hand of the Nepalese monarchy it was a horrible miscalculation. Urban sentiment, which had been lukewarm at best toward the rebels, has now swung decisively in their favor, at the same time precipitating a crisis within the loyal but now dispersed parliamentary opposition.

If the monarchy can defeat the rebels militarily (a dicey prospect), it could emerge stronger than ever; while the Maoists control 80% of the countryside, their hold on the major cities like Kathmandu is very tenuous. If on the other hand Washington or London see the country further descending into chaos and the prospect of a Communist victory looms large, look for a sudden departure of the King and his entourage probably to India or to the US and a government of national reconciliation quickly taking its place.

The strike itself has begun to pinch in terms of basic foodstuff and electricity, thus adversely affecting the very people the revolution is ostensibly designed to help. This too could have a deleterious effect on popular support for the insurgency within the cities, a consequence the rebels are at great pains to avoid. The Maoists must broaden their support to include the small but significant urban working class if they are to enjoy the type of legitimacy necessary to secure a place in Nepal's future.